Monday, August 22, 2011

Social Security Disability Fund is Going Broke Too

The news media is reporting today that the Social Security Disability Fund will go broke in 2017 due to the sudden increase in claims by people disabled and out of work.  Sorry to say, that this is NOT new news!  The 2012 Budget estimates projected this same catastrophe months ago, but it is only making the news now.  Here is the forecast of the Social Security Disability Trust Fund Balance through 2018, when it was forecasted to be a negative balance.


As you can see, the Disability Trust Fund started shrinking at a rapid pace starting in 2008, so the crisis in this Trust Fund started three years ago.
The news today reported that claims are exptected to rise by as much as 50%.  Should this occur through 2012, this fund will go negative in 2012!  Why is this important to us??  Last time the Disability Trust was in trouble, is was rescued by the Social Security Trust Fund.  In my post of May 23, 2011 titled "Social Security and Medicare Cost per Person", I projected the Social Security Trust Fund would last through 2050.  The fact that payroll taxes have been cut for 2011 and likely through 2012, will certainly change this 2050 date, but it appears that Social Security supporting the Disability Fund is a low risk option in the short term.  However, now this makes me want to update my Social Security and Medicare cost per person forecasts based on the low GDP growth expected over the next several years.

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