Professional sports standings, playoffs and finals are often in the news so I was curious about the real statistics of the stats. I looked into MLB, NFL, NHL and NBA using the most recently completed season for each sport and their final game. I was interested to know if the winning teams were statistically better than their league competitors or was the whole season just chance, as in a coin flip! I am using a 99.7% confidence level for my conclusions or said another way, there is a 3 in a 1000 chance I could be wrong! Also remember, that in any single game where you win or loose, there is a 50/50 chance that either team will win, UNLESS one of them is uniquely better.
NFL plays a 16 game season. There was one team that WAS statistically better that all the others, which was New England with a .875 season. Of interest, there was also a statistically poor team with a .125 record which was Carolina. All the other teams were statistically equivalent, meaning their wins and loses were just chance. (How else would the bookies make money!). But alas, the super bowl was played not by the "best" team, but just the lucky ones.
MLB plays a 162 game season, and as is typically the case, no team had a truely winning season. Philadelphia had the best record at .599, but they were not statistically better than any other team. There was a statistically poor team with a .352 record which was Pittsburgh. The World Series was played by two lucky teams and the winner was again a flip of the coin, since winning in 5 games is not statistically meaningful.
NHL plays an 82 game season, and just like MLB, there was not a superior team, statistically speaking. But, also like MLB, there was a low performer which was Edmonton with a .330 record. The Stanley Cup was played by two lucky teams with a coin flip winner as a 6 game final is not statistically relevant either.
The NBA plays an 82 game season also, but in this case there is something very different! There were 4 teams that were statistically unique, 2 in the East and 2 in the West. They were Cleveland (.744), Orlando (.720), Dallas (.671) and LA Lakers (.695), who went on to the Finals against Boston (.610). The 7 game series again did not establish a statistical winner. Also of interest is that there were 7 teams who all had statistically low seasons below .335. I would assume from these results that the bookies have a more difficult time making as much money as they do in the other sports.
So the adage of "any team on any given day" does seem to ring true, except in basketball! Watching the games sure is a pretty exciting way to watch a coin flip.
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