Covid 10 Fatalities - 4/14 Update

I have continued to update my data each day from the Worldometers.info site.  This has allowed me to continue to track the daily growth rate as we approach the peak of both the Total Cases / day and Deaths / Day.  As would be predicted on from a normal distribution, the daily growth rates would begin to decline as you approach the peak, which has happened in both cases.  Finally, once the daily numbers begin to decline, you should be able to take several days prior to the peak and combine them with several days after the peak, to calculated the daily growth rate that should be zero.  Said another way, this grouping should predict a horizontal growth line.  The day in the middle of this range should be the day of the peak.

As you see above, both graphs display horizontal predicted growth curves.  This suggests the curves have both peaked and begun to decline.  I conclude from this that Cases per Day peaked on 4/9/20 and Deaths per Day peaked the following day, 4/10/20.

In my previous post, I projected the peak for Cases would be 4/11/20 and also assumed the Deaths would peak 4 days later.  It now appears from the graphs above that the peak was 2 days earlier than I had predicted and Death peak was 5 days earlier than I predicted.

So my new forecast, which be significantly lower with the peaks coming sooner, is 39,400 deaths.  This equates to a mortality rate of 4.0% as compared to the Global current rate of 6.3%.   (Remember that this number assumes all infected people have been tested which is clearly not the case). This also predicts Deaths per 10,000 people in the US at 1.19 which compares to other countries predicted rates of  0.04 to 7.0.

So, my last assumption predicting this 39,400 total deaths, is just how skewed the final distribution of deaths will be.  Right now, my prediction is based on the right side of the distribution being 10% larger than the left side which is comprised now of all actual results.  It also assumes that there will not be a significant second wave of infections after the economy begins to open up.  I will continue to record actual results to look for the decline rate to again approach zero signaling the end of the pandemic in the US.